We are going to discuss the summit between the South and North Korean leaders in Pyongyang with our guest Georgy Toloraya, the East Asia section Director at the Institute of Economics of the RAS.
- Georgy Davidovich, hello.
- Hello.
- How do you evaluate the results of the summit and can we say that the peninsula's denuclearization is in the active phase now? It's been promised that the nuclear reactor in Yongbyon would be finally shut down.
- In fact, such a thing had not been expected from the North Koreans. After all, the summit was first and foremost dedicated to North Korea–South Korea relations. The matter of denuclearization should be discussed with the United States. Kim Jong-un, however, did accommodate the interests of the US and South Korea, too. He promised something that had not been expected from him. The destruction of the nuclear facilities in Yongbyon, namely, and the dismantlement of the missile launch site at the Sohae Satellite Launching Station under international control. That is a major shift, but it is all about the US now. If the US does anything to make concessions to North Koreans in terms of lifting sanctions or in terms of political declarations, the process of denuclearization or, at least, the process of reducing the nuclear arsenal of the peninsula might go to the active phase. It is unclear, however, whether the Americans would conduct such measures. All we see for now is the build-up of pressure from the sanctions.
- Pyongyang, as far as I understand, is awaiting certain guarantees of security from Washington. When do you think Washington will react to the results of the summit? And will there be any reaction at all?
- There are no specific security guarantees... That would be a promise impossible to break later... And we, not once,... Anyway, the North Koreans hope the Americans will at least agree to a peace treaty to end the war, establish official relations, and discuss other questions and so on. North Korea wouldn't feel like the constant target of American missiles. No actions have been conducted towards it, quite the contrary. The thing is, Trump as president and commander-in-chief can barely do anything. His entire establishment and his office do not want, in fact, to improve the Korean peninsula's situation, as it doesn't correlate with the geopolitical interests of the US in Asia. That's why they demand a one-sided denuclearization from North Korea, which is, of course, hard to agree with.
- Meanwhile, however, it is known that as a result of the summit, both leaders agreed to establish the Inter-Korean Joint Military Committee that would be in charge of keeping peace in the DMZ. How do you think this mechanism will function and will it be effective?
- Military officials from both counties are already in touch. And that, in fact, is a very useful measure that would help people that are used to having each other only at gunpoint to communicate and prevent unwanted precedents. It is highly important that at border zones, especially at the sea, there will no military exercise or maneuvers that might lead to confusion, that certain measures towards disarmament will be conducted. That is vital and of high importance.
- It seems that sports might be the best motivation to improve the relationship between the Koreas. What do you think of their agreement to jointly participate in the Olympic Games? As I understand, they are going to submit their applications for hosting the Olympic games in 2032? Is that "a thaw" for North Korea?
- ...so it happened. The joint application for hosting the Games jointly in 2032 was a sensation. And it's not about the application itself, not about it being accepted or not. The thing is, with that, both countries agreed that there will be no reunification in the next 15 years. South Koreans have never expected that North Korea would last for so long. They've always hoped that the regime would soon collapse. So it's not about the Games, it's about the fact that the North and the South have agreed that reunification is not on the agenda in the following years.
- Thank you very much for your commentary. That was Georgy Toloraya, the East Asia section Director at the Institute of Economics of the RAS.
